1. Trump’s tariff plan: implications for the future of global liquids trade
Opinion

Trump’s tariff plan: implications for the future of global liquids trade

A new tariff plan on imports would affect US consumers, global oil markets and refining, if implemented post US election

1 minute read

Alan Gelder profile picture.

Alan Gelder

SVP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets

Alan is responsible for formulating our research outlook and cross-sector perspectives on the global downstream sector.

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Ann-Louise Hittle

Vice President, Oil Markets

Ann-Louise directs our Macro Oils Service and is a frequent contributor to numerous industry publications.

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Peter Martin

Head of Economics, Macroeconomics

Peter is responsible for producing our macroeconomic outlook to 2050.

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Iain Mowat

Principal Analyst, EMEARC Refining and Oil Product Markets

Iain brings extensive knowledge of global energy markets to his analysis of energy and petroleum demand.

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Douglas Thyne

Research Director, Oil Supply

Douglas manages our global oil supply research and forecasts.

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Emma Mitchell (née Fox)

Principal Analyst, EMEA Refining

Emma is a Principal Analyst in the oils and chems research team.

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President Trump has said he intends to impose a 10% trade tariff on all imports, with an additional rate of 60% for Chinese imports. This move would likely trigger slower economic growth both in the U.S. and globally, reducing demand for liquid fuels, driving down oil prices, and ultimately affecting the refining industry.

We cover the likely impact of President Trump’s tariff plan and more in our latest report, Assessing the likely impact of Trump’s tariff plan on oil.

Within this report, we reveal tariffs would lower global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.5% in 2025, and by 0.8 percentage points to 2.0% growth in 2026. We also explore key topics essential for investors and the implications of the tariff policy.

Our experts give insight into:

  • Key assumptions for this more protectionist US trade policy
  • The effect of the planned tariffs on global and US economic growth in 2025 and 2026
  • Our assessment of what it means for global liquids demand
  • What does the lower demand mean for the oil price and OPEC+?
  • The likely impact on the refining sector

To find out more, download your free copy of our report, Assessing the likely impact of Trump’s tariff plan on oil, by filling out the form at the top of this page.

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