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Macroeconomics, risk and global trends reports
Global economic outlook Q2 2026: global economy faces historic energy shock
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now the greatest single risk to the global economy. Our base case outlook assumes a brief Middle Eas...
China economic focus April 2026: navigating the energy crisis
As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues in April, 55% of China’s crude oil imports and 30% of the country’s LNG imports are at risk. In th...
China economic focus March 2026: the 15th Five-Year Plan explained
China released the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) in March with surprisingly little market fanfare, as it largely lacks the upside surprises or ag...
Conflict scenario: Iran War sparks a global race for energy security
This conflict scenario models a potential outcome where sustained geopolitical instability, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, compels a radi...
Global economic outlook Q1 2026: pushed and pulled
Global economic growth is set to decelerate in 2026 as headwinds intensify across major markets, including the US and China. After holding steady a...
What does a faster energy transition mean for economies by 2100?
The energy transition’s economic impact will be multifaceted. Understanding the full economic story of the energy transition requires a view to the...
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