Carbon mitigation 2026 outlook: half-time report

The first half of 2026 has been challenging for carbon policy, carbon markets and carbon capture. Yet amid the setbacks there were positive developments too.

Drawing on unique insight and proprietary data from our specialised emissions and carbon management product set, our Carbon mitigation outlook 2026 half-time report takes stock of progress in H1 2026 and looks ahead at what to expect in H2 and beyond.

Fill in the form for your free copy of the report, and read on for a short introduction to its key themes.

1. Carbon markets: Compliance and offsetting remain resilient despite setbacks

The Middle East conflict and member-state opposition to the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) softened EU carbon market demand in Q1 2026, but it recovered in Q2. In Canada, Alberta introduced less ambitious pricing for its Technology Innovation and Emissions Regulations (TIER), while in California’s Western Climate Initiative (WCI) prices remain subdued, with proposed amendments likely to soften demand further.

More positively, prices for one regional carbon market have already surged 76% in 2026 — read the full report to find out where.

2. Carbon offsetting: Concentration risk exposed but EU proposals positive

For carbon offsets, Microsoft’s announcement it may ‘adjust the pace or volume’ of its carbon removal procurement exposed the market’s buyer concentration risk. On the plus side, recent EU proposals and expected announcements in H2 2026 should reinvigorate the European offset market’s stalled growth trajectory — learn more in the full report.

3. CCUS: A mixed and highly regionalised picture for carbon capture

For carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), H1 2026 saw pipeline and policy progress contrasted with delays and setbacks. While the overall project pipeline grew strongly, only a fraction of expected new capacity became operational, with headline projects facing supply chain issues, permitting hurdles and construction delays.

On the upside, a number of countries made positive CCUS policy announcements in H1 2026, which you can learn about in the full report.

4. Carbon policy: Fossil fuel phaseout, climate litigation, and Colombia steps up

Three of our thematic predictions for carbon policy in 2026 are broadly on track:

• The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels shifted the narrative, with 50 countries including the EU, UK, Canada, Brazil, Nigeria and joint hosts Colombia and The Netherlands placing fossil fuel phaseout front and centre.
• The UN General Assembly gave strong backing for climate litigation, overwhelmingly adopting a resolution to support the International Court of Justice’s ruling on countries’ obligation to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions.
• Colombia emerged as an important moral and diplomatic voice on climate, pushing for more than incremental multilateralism, while Brazil also demonstrated continuing momentum and resolve.

The failure of other countries to demonstrate clear climate leadership is far less positive, however. Fill in the form to find out more in the full report.

Don’t forget to fill out the form for your free copy of the outlook, which covers these topics in more detail with supporting charts and data.