Global solar 2026 outlook: half-time report

Six months into 2026, global solar is navigating a landscape that is more complex - and more consequential - than ever. Demand for new capacity keeps climbing, but the path to deployment is being shaped by technology shifts, geopolitical disruption and an evolving policy environment that is moving at very different speeds across markets. 

The first half of 2026 has been a year of revision and recalibration for global solar. Demand forecasts have moved higher, technology roadmaps have grown more urgent, and geopolitical shocks have tested supply chains in ways that few anticipated at the start of the year. For developers, investors and asset owners, the picture heading into H2 is one of genuine opportunity, but also of meaningful risk.

Wood Mackenzie's Head of Global Solar, Michelle Davis, reviews the predictions made at the start of the year and takes stock of the key developments shaping the industry in 2026, drawing on data and analysis from Wood Mackenzie Lens Power & Renewables. 

Fill in the form to download your complimentary copy, and read on for a short introduction to just two of the key themes:

Solar and the demand surge: raising the stakes

US power demand growth forecasts have been revised upward again in Wood Mackenzie's latest North America Power Markets Strategic Planning Outlook for H1 2026 - from 2.9% to 3.2% over the next decade. Data centres are now driving two-thirds of that load growth, creating sustained and intensifying pressure on generation capacity additions.

Solar continues to hold its position as the second largest source of new generation behind gas, with 465 TWh of additional capacity expected between 2026 and 2035. Its cost competitiveness and shorter deployment timelines give it a structural advantage in a market that needs capacity fast.

But as demand rises, so do the stakes. What does this revised outlook mean for solar's role in the generation mix - and for the developers and investors positioning themselves to capture it? Read our full analysis in the report.

Solar technology at a crossroads - and the silver problem

TOPCon is today's mainstream technology and is expected to remain dominant through at least 2028. But N-type cells are approaching their theoretical efficiency limits, with only around 1.5% of headroom remaining. That is pushing leading manufacturers toward perovskite-silicon tandem cells as the next frontier - lab-scale efficiencies have already exceeded 34%, but commercialisation at scale is not expected before 2028, with heat and moisture stability still a critical constraint.

Meanwhile, a more immediate pressure is reshaping manufacturing economics right now. Silver now accounts for 25% of TOPCon cell costs after prices more than doubled, pushing total cell costs up more than 30% in the past year. Reducing silver consumption has shifted from a cost optimisation goal to a strategic necessity, accelerating innovation in busbar design and silver-copper substitution.

How are manufacturers responding, and what does the technology transition mean for module buyers and project developers? Read our view in the full report.

Also in 'Global solar: key themes through H1 2026'...

Is balcony solar on the verge of going mainstream in the US? More than half of all US states are now actively considering enabling legislation, but organised labour opposition is proving a more significant obstacle than anticipated in some markets.

And in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven a sharp reduction in near-term installation forecasts, with multiple gigawatts of projects delayed or cancelled, but does the long-term Gulf outlook remain intact?

To read the full analysis, fill in the form at the top of the page to download your complimentary copy of the report.